Tariffs, Copper, and Why Your Quote Went Up Nine Percent

A customer in Naches told me last month that every contractor she called blamed tariffs and none of them could tell her which part of the job the tariff touched. She was right to be annoyed. 'Costs went up' is what people say when they don't want to open the books.

So let me open ours, in general terms.

A typical residential changeout has four cost buckets: equipment, materials, labor, and overhead. Equipment is the condenser, coil, and furnace or air handler. Materials are line set, sheet metal, whips, pads, disconnects, thermostat, drain. Labor is two technicians for one to two days. Overhead is trucks, insurance, warranty reserve, the person answering the phone at 2 a.m.

Equipment prices from the manufacturers moved up in two waves this year — one tied to the A2L refrigerant redesign, one tied to steel, aluminum, and component tariffs. Between them, list pricing on the systems we install rose in the high single digits. Copper line set moved more than that on a percentage basis, though it's a smaller line item. Sheet metal moved. Labor moved, because I gave raises, because a NATE-certified tech with fifteen years in can go anywhere and I'd like him to stay here.

What did not move: our margin. It's the same percentage it was in 2019, and I'll tell you why that's a business decision rather than a virtue. Every time this trade takes a shock, some outfits widen margin to protect profit and lose customers permanently. The families that got quoted opportunistically in 2021 still remember. I would rather earn less on each job for thirty years than more on each job for four.

The practical advice: get your quote itemized. Not 'system installed, $14,200.' Equipment model numbers, material list, labor hours, permit, and warranty terms as separate lines. Any contractor who won't itemize is hiding either the margin or the corner they're cutting. If our number is high compared to someone else's, I want you holding two itemized sheets side by side so you can see exactly what's different. Usually it's the ductwork, the load calculation, or the length of the labor warranty. Sometimes it's nothing, and they're just cheaper, and you should hire them.