Lead Times Are Back. Plan Your Summer in March.

Our distributor reps have been straight with us this spring, so I'll pass it along straight to you. Stock on the common residential tonnages is adequate right now. Stock in August will not be.

The reason is the same one it was in 2021 and 2023, just from a different direction. The A2L refrigerant transition reset every product line, which means the manufacturers are building new SKUs on newer tooling, and the buffer inventory that used to absorb a bad heat wave isn't there. Add tariff-driven ordering caution up the supply chain and you get a system that works fine at normal demand and buckles at peak.

What that means in practice: if your condenser dies during a July heat event and you need a specific size and configuration, you may be looking at two to five weeks. We'll get you a loaner window unit and we'll prioritize medical-need households, but I cannot manufacture a four-ton coil in my parking lot.

So the advice is the boring advice, again. If your system is fifteen years or older, get it evaluated in March or April. If the evaluation says it's got a season or two left, great — you've bought information for the price of a diagnostic. If it says this is the year, you get to buy it in the calm, at spring pricing, with the full catalog available and a crew that has time to do the ductwork right.

I've written some version of this article every year for a long time. People still call in July. I'll keep answering the phone in July. But the folks who called in March get a better system, a better price, and a better week.